Market Insights

In the past two weeks, investors got a lot more clarity on two of the largest clouds hanging over the market: the U.S. election and the coronavirus.

We now know who the next president is, and have a better idea (Georgia’s Senate election notwithstanding) of what the balance of power will look like in Washington D.C. And news that Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine has shown a high success rate offers hope that we may be on the path toward addressing the coronavirus pandemic and normalizing the economy, even if current infection spread is alarming.

In this brief Q&A, Dana portfolio managers Joseph Veranth and David Weinstein reflect on what the election and vaccine could mean for markets going forward

Editor’s note: Our industrial sector outlook is part of a regular series sharing our views on various sectors with advisors and consultants. It’s part of our efforts to increase communication with investors at a time of economic and market uncertainty. While the sector outlooks provide a short overview of our thinking, we invite you to contact us if you are interested in a deeper discussion.

The economic fallout from the coronavirus has created an undeniable rough patch for the industrial sector. But there are bright spots beneath the darker clouds. We see investment opportunity in a few companies with innovative businesses using technology to improve manufacturing in other industries. We also see potential in “self-help” stories – management teams who are using efficiencies to improve the bottom line even as top-line growth slows.

We share these bright spots, some of the sector headwinds, and how we are navigating this economic environment in our industrial sector outlook.

Large cap stocks have outperformed small caps since the pandemic, but smaller stocks have begun to close that gap in recent weeks. It’s still early, but if investors stay patient, we believe small caps could be poised to continue to outperform in the coming quarters.

This blog post explores what was behind small cap underperformance in prior months, and why smaller stocks may outperform going forward, particularly when we receive clearer indicators of an economic rebound.

In Initial Months of Pandemic, Mega Caps Enjoyed Mega Dominance

Large caps’ outperformance over small caps in the spring and summer was due largely to the very largest stocks in the indices, a trend we noted in prior blogs. Many of the largest companies by market cap are tech stocks, and their revenue streams were naturally resistant to the pandemic and a stay-at-home lifestyle. Individuals still need Microsoft to work from home, for example, and relied on Amazon for delivery more than ever before.

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activity among asset management firms is creating some investment behemoths. As these businesses scale up, we hope their clients are asking a critical question: What’s in it for me?

The consolidation wave running through the industry continued this month, with Morgan Stanley announcing it will acquire Eaton Vance, and Trian taking stakes in two large asset managers with the hopes they will merge. The announcements follow several other mega-deals in the past few years.

Too often, the touted benefits of these mergers seem focused on two factors: size and scale. But does bigger mean better for the client? As a small investment boutique, we admit we approach this argument with our own bias, but we see a few reasons clients may not benefit when their investment partners merge.

The presidential race may be polarizing, but both sides can agree on one thing: It at least has been compelling. The unexpected twists and turns over the past month have everyone anxiously awaiting November.

We’re anxious too. But as investors, we don’t just think about who we want to win. We try to think about what could happen in a range of different – and unexpected – outcomes. In this brief Q&A, we look at some of the factors investors should consider before November. The views are not a wish list of a particular election outcome or an endorsement of a party or candidate, just straight-forward things that advisors and other investors should think about:

What is the base case markets are pricing in about elections right now?

Markets, like polls, are predicting a win for Joe Biden. The general view is that he would be less business-friendly and that this could ultimately weigh on corporate profits. However, it’s likely that Republicans could still control the Senate.

It’s generally believed Republicans will pick up a Senate seat in Alabama. If that happens, Democrats would need to flip three seats to get to 50/50. The most likely are Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado and Arizona. We believe the market is currently hanging its hat on a Biden win, but that flipping three of those five would be a tall order.

Stocks recovered some ground last week, but September was the roughest month for U.S. equities since stocks began rebounding from bear market territory in late March. Below are a few quick takeaways on the September swoon, what may lie ahead, and how we are investing:

• Given the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, a correction wasn’t entirely surprising. In the spring, the question clients asked us most frequently was why stocks continued to drive higher, despite high unemployment and a clear downturn in economic activity.
  
  The short answer was that fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted markets and gave hope that the economy would rebound quickly. In September, investors may have woken up to the reality that the economic recovery will be uneven, and economic activity and data will probably move in fits and starts. An impasse in Congress around additional coronavirus relief has raised additional concerns about the economic recovery.

Editor’s note: Our financial sector outlook is the first in a regular series sharing our views on various sectors with advisors and consultants. It’s part of our efforts to increase communication with investors at a time of economic and market uncertainty. While the sector outlooks provide a short overview of our thinking, we invite you to contact us if you are interested in a deeper discussion.

Since the coronavirus pandemic began, few stocks have been as unloved as financials. But the same headwinds working against the sector could be setting it up for a rebound with a little more confirmation about the economy.

Based on the following fund profiles, can you pick the ESG strategy?

Fund 1 (U.S. large cap blend category)

Morningstar Sustainability Rating: 5 Globes
Historical Sustainability Score Percent Rank: 11th
Historical Sustainability Score (lower score = lower risk): 22.16
Current Sustainability Score (lower score = lower risk): 22.33
ESG Breakdown (lower score = lower risk):

• Environmental: 4.16
• Social: 10.76
• Governance: 7.40

Fund 2 (U.S. large cap blend category)

Morningstar Sustainability Rating: 3 Globes
Historical Sustainability Score Percent Rank: 40th
Historical Sustainability Score (lower score = lower risk): 23.52
Current Sustainability Score (lower score = lower risk): 23.32
ESG Breakdown (lower score = lower risk):

• Environmental: 3.81
• Social: 9.94
• Governance: 7.08

Current Sustainability Scores based on 98% of AUM | Global Category: US Equity Large Cap Blend |3166 Funds in the Global Category | Sustainability Scores as of Jul 31, 2020. Sustainability Rating as of Jul 31, 2020.

Surprisingly, only Fund 2 has an ESG label. We won’t name the competitor but will simply point out that it comes from a large asset manager and that the fund has ESG in its title. The first fund is Dana’s own large-cap U.S. equity fund. If you didn’t judge by the title, it could easily be classified as an ESG strategy.

Growth stocks have continued a decade-long trend and massively outperformed value stocks for much of 2020, but in recent weeks performance has been more even. The change suggests many of the factors that propelled growth forward since the pandemic have been fully absorbed by the market. But is that enough to stage a changing of the guard for value investing?

This blog post reflects on what fueled the divergence between growth and value in recent months, what it will take to reverse value stocks’ fortunes, and why the recent economic downturn may turn out to be a positive change agent for some companies in value indices.

Renewable energy companies enjoyed considerable growth over the last decade, as the cost of solar and wind power technologies declined significantly. ”Renewables’ competitiveness with fossil fuels is strong, driven by considerable innovation, learning and economies of scale,” Lydia Miller, Portfolio Specialist at Dana Investment Advisors states in a recent Green Money Journal column. “We believe that the transition to a low-carbon economy is happening and will continue to happen. This happens over decades, with investors increasingly discounting this long-term trend.”