It’s hard to believe we are already halfway through 2020 – and what a ride it has been so far.
Our top three blogs for the year to date include insights on the fall into bear market territory, an almost equally quick rebound that seemed out of touch with economic reality, and an index that has more concentration risk than at any point over the last 30 years. These issues are still relevant today – give them a read and make some sense of the madness.
As always, we welcome your questions or comments. If you would like for us to cover a specific topic, we would love to hear from you. Just fill out the form on our contact us page and we will be in touch!
Dana Investment Team
Five Stats to Keep Clients Invested Through a Volatile Market
It’s a natural reaction to every bear market. As stocks plummet, clients start wondering whether they should pull money out of equities and wait on the sidelines until conditions improve. If you’re an advisor, you may have had several conversations along these lines recently. We salute your efforts to help clients stay the course.
At Dana, we realize the importance of staying fully invested and reflect it in our investment process, which dictates that funds hold minimal cash. Our view is that it is always better to stay fully invested because not even experts can perfectly time a rebound.
Top-Heavy & Troubling: S&P 500 Bears Extreme Concentration Risk
The S&P 500 bears an extreme risk: too few stocks account for too much of its weight. The index is experiencing extreme concentration risk not seen in the last 30 years, with its five largest stocks now accounting for more than 20% of the entire index.
The chart below shows just how out of balance the weightings of the largest S&P 500 stocks have become. Currently, the total index weight of the five largest holdings is more than five standard deviations1 above normal.
Explaining the Disconnect Between Stocks and the Economy
In recent conversations with clients, we are getting fewer questions about our economic outlook. Many of our clients are themselves business owners and have already felt the pandemic’s economic pinch firsthand. They don’t need investors to explain the fear gripping Main Street. What puzzles them is how the stock market could be so at odds with the economic gloom.
While entire industries are on the sideline during the pandemic and the unemployment rate continues to climb, stocks have recovered much (though not all) of March’s losses. So, what’s behind the rally that seems so out of sync? In short, we think the market is confident about the safety net the Fed and the government has provided. Given the size and scope of that safety net, markets are already looking ahead to when the quarantine ends.